《大行报告》高盛:对一部份农地引用《收回土地条例》 并不一定对主要发展商不利
高盛发表报告,近日本地报导指特首林郑月娥对《收回土地条例》的态度软化。该行认为,虽然《收回土地条例》的使用并非前所未有,但当前的讨论可能会是更广泛或更普遍地使用这种方法作为政府增加土地供应的一种选择。
报告指出,据2018年6月立法会会议记录,除了其他持续的私人土地公共住房项目外,政府估计目前约有500公顷的私人土地位於未来几年的大型土地发展项目范围内,包括横洲发展计划第一期,古洞北及粉岭北新发展区等。例如,根据恒基地产(00012.HK)在今年上半年的报告披露,该公司在古洞北及粉岭北新发展区拥有240万平方尺农地用地,而其中20万平方尺已转换成住宅用地,未来仍会有更多地进行转换。
该行认为,目前不考虑任何结果的可能性,但对一部份农地引用《收回土地条例》并不一定对主要发展商不利。
总体而言,该行指目前宏观不确定性加剧及持续的经济发展可能导致实体住宅市场未来更为动荡,更称现时本港社会不稳情况若持续一年,会对本地发展商资产净值带来5%至31%的潜在负面影响,因此在上述假设下,该行所覆盖的地产股股价存在逾20%下跌空间。
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