大摩:首予中金公司(3908.HK)“增持”评级 目标价18.54港元
摩根士丹利发表研究报告,指随着中国资本市场的发展,中金公司(3908.HK)
以机构业务为重点的商业模式相比同业具有定位优势,有更长远的机会。集团与中投证券的合并后,为财富管理提供潜在的收入增长动力,惟协同效应需时体现,该行首予“
增持
”评级,目标价18.54
港元
。
该行指,公司的收入主要来自机构业务,尤其是固定收入、外汇、商品、投资银行、私募基金及海外业务,故对A股的周期性敏感度较低,即使在2017-2019年具挑战的市场下,其股本回报和股价亦可跑赢同业。
该行又指,集团收购中投证券后增加了零售市场的占比,开拓收入来源,预计未来5年,财富管理业务收入占比约为15%。不过中投证券的员工因过去主力在零售市场,故未来转至财富管理业务时或面对挑战,加上中金的杠杆已接近监管上限,市场或担心需进行股权融资。该行表示,公司现价相当于2020年市账率预测1.2倍,高于同业的平均值0.8倍,预期长远估值较同行出现溢价,料其机构和财富管理业务潜在利益将逐步实现。
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