中国建材(03323.HK):机遇与挑战并存,维持“收集“评级,目标价7.46港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:收集
目标价:7.46港元
2019年上半年股东利润同比增长长51.3%,但因非经常项而不及预期。总收入同比增17.8%至1,121.64亿元人民币,好于预期。管理费用同比大增41.7%,主要由于北新建材17.94亿元人民币的诉讼和解费用以及9.19亿元人民币的商誉减值损失。剔除非经常项后,公司的股东利润增速实际上符合我们的预期。
我们对维持对2019年下半年大多数区域水泥市场的正面展望。我们认为北方地区水泥产量增速在2019年全年将可维持在双位数,对于南方地区而言,在数轮涨价之后,华东预计将引领九月之后的旺季。
将2019/2020/2021年的每股盈利预测分别调整-6.2%/+0.3%/+1.6%。我们主要对管理费用的假设做出了较大调整,以反映北新建材的诉讼和解费用以及高于预期的商誉与应收款减值损失的影响。
上调目标价至7.46港元并维持“收集”。我们的DCF模型给出的公允价值为每股8.57港元。倘若中国建材100亿元人民币的年度减债目标能够实现,公司2019年下半年的现金流预计将面临更大的压力。然而,我们认为中国建材能够产生强健的经营性现金流来支持去杠杆。我们认为尽管杠杆与减值相关风险尚存,公司当前的估值具有吸引力。我们最新的目标价对应4.8倍/5.1倍/5.1倍的2019-2021年市盈率和0.7倍的2019年市净率。

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