天立教育(01773.HK)：人数学费双升，学校网络进入快速扩张期
机构：西南证券
投资要点
业绩总结：2019上半年实现收入4.4亿元，同比增长42%；实现净利润1.5亿元，同比增长36.4%，归母净利润1.4亿元，同比增长38.3%。2018H存在899.2万上市费用，剔除影响后净利润增速为25.8%。
入读人数增长+学费上调，收入实现高增长。公司2019H学费/寄宿费/学校餐运营/管理及特许运营费分别实现收入3.1亿元/3893万元/8916.2万元/304.2万元，同比分别增长42.2%/30.8%/39.2%/205.4%。从学校版块类型看，自有K12学校/自有培训中心/自有早教中心分别实现营收4.2亿元/1439.1万元/57万元，同比分别增长42.9%/15.4%/-54.5%。收入增长由两方面推动：1）人数增长：2018-2019年新开办学校3所，同时自有学校人数增加，整体入读人数30145人（yoy+37.4%）；2）学费上调：2019H公司高中/初中/小学平均学费住宿费分别为1.1万/1.2万/1.2万，同比分别增长16.5%/4.2%/4.8%。
人工成本增幅较大，拖累利润增速。报告期公司毛利率43.4%（yoy-6.9pp），主要由于学生及学校数量的增长下公司员工数量增至4150名（yoy+21.1%），并且提高薪资水平吸引及留聘人才，导致占比50%以上的人工成本大幅增加80.5%，以及折旧、材料消耗等因素共同影响。费用方面，管理费用率受益于规模效应下降至9.7%（yoy-2.2pp），财务费用率受益于利息资本化的增加下降至0.8%（yoy-2.7pp）。主要受毛利下降影响，净利率下降至33.4%（yoy-1.4pp），若考虑2018H上市费用影响，则毛利率下降幅度约为4.3pp，未来随着新校区逐渐成熟、招生数量增加规模化体现，盈利水平仍存改善空间。
西部地区龙头K12民办教育服务商，学校网络稳步扩张。公司为中国西部地区领先的K12学校服务商，办学质量优异，截止2019H高考大学录取率93.6%+一本录取率高达68.6%。凭借较强的标准化异地复制扩张能力，截止2019H公司于中国10个城市运营有17所K-12学校（包括7个高中学段、11个初中学段、12个小学学段及6个幼儿园学段）以及11间培训中心及4间早教中心，2018-2019年新开3所自有学校+1所委托学校，2019-2020学年报告期内公司已就3所K-12学校订立协议，预计2019年9月将新开7所学校、2020年新开至少5所新校，项目储备丰富，学校网络按计划稳健扩张。
盈利预测与评级：预计2019-2021年EPS分别为0.12元、0.17元、0.22元，对应PE25X、18X、14X，由于民促法落地仍具有不确定性，暂不给予评级。?风险提示：行业政策及竞争形势或发生重大变化，全国网点拓展或不及预期，学校招生人数增速或不及预期以及学费涨幅或不及预期。
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