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中国中药(00570.HK)深度报告:配方颗粒龙头深挖护城河,强化现代中药全产业链优势,给予“强烈推荐”评级
格隆汇 09-04 15:55

机构:广证恒生

评级:强烈推荐

中药配方颗粒:“技术+产能+市场”不断加深公司龙头企业护城河

中药配方颗粒市场规模约150亿,仅占中药材市场渗透率约6%,成长空间巨大,公司为配方颗粒行业的绝对龙头,占约四成市场份额。公司不断从技术、产能和市场层面加深护城河:(1)技术标准层面,子公司江阴天江和一方制药属于行业的先驱,均是国内最早获得配方颗粒试点资格的企业,经过二十余年的积累,公司荣获“中华中医药学会科技进步奖”等多个科技进步奖项,并参与制定国家配方颗粒标准,在目前170个国家配方颗粒标准中,公司制定了约90个标准;(2)产能品种层面,公司目前总产能为14300吨,远高于其他4家国家试点企业(产能排名第二的四川新绿色仅有4000吨),同时公司配方颗粒品种高达700余种,品种丰富,产能充裕,规模效应凸显;(3)市场网络层面,公司的销售范围覆盖全国各地,同时借助四川、陕西、云南、湖南、湖北、山东等当地的产业园开拓当地市场,配合智能配药机的推广,企业得以提高终端医疗机构的客户粘性,终端智能配药机数量(年初数)从2015年的721台增加到2018年的5000台,智能配药机覆盖的终端医疗机构数量从2015年的492家上升到2018年的3500家,年复合增长率高达92.32%。

中成药:““3+4+5”优质品牌保驾护航,询证医学临床研究强化核心产品竞争力

公司现拥有3个中华老字号品种、4个非物质文化遗产、5个中国驰名商标,凭借多个优质品牌,公司成药业务近3年复合增长率达15.95%。公司产品覆盖骨质疏松、鼻炎、肝炎、心脑血管、风湿类疾病等领域,由临床类(约占中成药营收比重49.05%)和OTC类药品(中成药营收比重占24.66%)双核心驱动,目前拥有十大基药产品以及十余种核心产品。同时,为了保持公司核心产品的竞争力,公司针对六大核心产品开展了询证医学临床研究,其中三大品种的研究已结题,其余三种正在顺利推行中,预计未来在询证临床研究的学术依据支持下,公司核心产品价值临床及认可度将持续提升。

中药饮片:“去粗取精”提毛利,“龙印品牌战略”做精品药材

公司旗下有冯了性药材饮片、北京华邈、北京华泰等多家饮片企业,而近3年公司的饮片业务毛利率相对较低,维持在17%左右。针对饮片业务,公司从2个层面采取措施:(1)公司开始摒弃一些传统低毛利业务,2019H1毛利率逐步提升(达18.02%)。(2)使用“龙印-中国药材”品牌,打造精品药材,计划未来将把“龙印”品牌推广至所有业务。(3)新设“产地综合业务”,总投资约21亿,整合药材、饮片和配方颗粒的一体化产业链,实现全品种全体系生产经营,并辐射全国各地区。

盈利预测与估值:

根据公司业务经营增长情况,我们预计2019-2021年业绩将分别达139.34亿、173.29亿、216.53亿,测算公司19-21年EPS分别为0.32、0.40、0.51元,目前185.32亿市值,分别对应19-21年11.33、9.12、7.21倍PE,持续“强烈推荐”评级。

风险提示:

配方颗粒加成取消;医保资质取消;地区保护政策风险;中药材价格波动;市场竞争加剧风险。

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