恒安国际 ( 1044.HK ) 首次覆盖报告:产品创新管理变革双管齐下,卫生用品龙头再期辉煌,给予“增持”评级
机构:国泰君安
评级:增持
本报告导读:
公司作为生活用纸龙头有望受益于行业集中度和渗透率提升,阿米巴模式新渠道变革、创新消费升级品类研发推出和海外战略布局将推动公司业绩持续稳定增长。
摘要:
首次覆盖给予增持评级。公司作为中国最大生活用纸与妇幼卫生用品品牌,纸巾、卫生巾和纸尿裤市占率均居于行业前茅,盈利水平远高于同业公司。考虑到生活用纸及卫生用品行业渗透率和市场集中度均有提升空间,公司作为龙头企业有望凭借产品、成本、品牌、创新及渠道等优势获得更高市场份额,阿米巴平台化小团队经营战略持续助力公司销售渠道变革,我们预计公司2019~2021年归母净利润分别为39.28/43.10/47.04亿元人民币,同增3.37%/9.74%/9.12%,对应EPS为3.30/3.62/3.95元人民币,当前市值对应2019年PE约为14倍,首次覆盖给予增持评级。
公司三大产品线16品牌多面覆盖不同消费需求,技术创新引领生活用纸市场潮流,消费者需求导向产品研发保持竞争活力。生活用纸人均消费量增加与消费升级共同推进行业发展,女性卫生用品高端与个性化需求崛起,失禁用品渗透率提升空间充足。生活用纸方面,公司作为龙头纸企凭借产品、成本、品牌、创新及渠道等优势有望获得更高市场份额;女性卫生用品方面,公司战略性扩大产品线覆盖范围,从卫生巾到女性健康产业,通过定位特定消费人群和产品更细致划分获取更高市场份额;失禁用品方面,公司加大高质量高档次高毛利产品发展力度应对市场竞争。
内部发力管理变革持续,阿米巴助力渠道全面布局。2016年公司开展恒安特色阿米巴战略——平台化小团队经营模式助力公司渠道变革,阿米巴模式重新活化了销售网络提升效益,公司销售费用率显著下降,持续提升销售、生产、行政效益,推出最符合消费者需求的产品。渠道方面,公司持续推行面对不同消费群体的全渠道布局策略,电商渠道仍有较大提升空间。目前公司传统销售渠道阿米巴转型使得短期销售情况承压,但长期看利于公司应对行业激烈竞争。阿米巴模式新渠道变革、创新消费升级品类研发推出和海外战略布局将推动公司业绩持续稳定增长。
催化剂:阿米巴渠道变革超预期,新品推出加速,木浆价格持续下行
风险提示:宏观经济波动,原材料价格波动,行业竞争加剧,汇率风险。

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