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植耀輝: 轉機未見續保留實力 煤價前景未明朗
阿思達克 09-04 11:14

耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,市況繼續維持悶局,皆因變數仍然頗多,單是本地局勢之變化已令筆者過去兩個月寢食難安;事實上,現時即使有資金,但入市買貨亦顧慮多多。假設現時有一筆資金入市,但只可以選擇買入恆指成份股,閣下會如何作出部署?本地金融、地產及公用股基於本地局勢不會考慮、中美貿易相關股份亦存有一定風險;而人民幣匯價走弱,對內地金融股、內房及濠賭股又有影響,資源股亦會面對經濟下行挑戰。在七除八扣下,可以選擇的板塊及績優股,便只得「藥股孖寶」、舜宇(02382.HK)及騰訊(00700.HK),這是否就是近期該批股份股價較硬淨的一大原因?

當然以上只是筆者猜想,但整體市況欠佳是不爭事實。所以還是先保留實力,待市況有所轉機再作部署。

另一方面,悶市中仍不乏異動股份。先談談兗州煤(01171.HK)。原因無他,在於週一(2日)該股大升超過18%,事緣集團豪派中期息1元人民幣,除了派息比率高達85%外,預期息率(單計中期)亦已超過13厘!論息率無疑十分吸引,不過派息的先決條件在於,業務發展是否有延續性?那便要研究煤炭行業是否有「錢」途。有留意本欄的讀者,應該知筆者對煤價看法一直相當有保留。不得不承認的是,筆者近年已較少研究相關板塊,不過既然兗煤大升,自然亦要分析煤價去向。

綜合而言,左右煤價去向的因素有以下幾方面。1)全球兩大煤炭消費國中國及印度的需求狀況;2)新能源之崛起及應用,以及3)未來煤炭供應量。先談第一及第二點。根據內地能源發展十三五規劃,煤炭在能源結構之佔比,將由2010年69.2%降至2015年之64%,並進一步降至2020年之58%。由於去年煤炭佔比已降至59%,要達標應該沒有太大難度。但此舉亦反映未來內地煤炭難再有可觀增長。印度方面,因電力供應不足,一度大力發電火電,但今年卻大削相關發展,轉移發展光伏發電。

至於內地清潔能源(包括非化石能源及天然氣)佔一次性能源總量比重約22.2%,較2012年提高7.7個百分點,但與2020年目標之25%及2030年之35%仍有一段距離。所以能源消費的結構調整,亦意味國策將傾斜新能源之上。

最後供應方面。煤價在2017年末至2018年初曾有一波急升,因極端天氣及內地淘汰落後產能及限產導致煤產量供不應求;其後天氣回暖及原煤產量逐步回升,煤價亦恢復正常。不過面對經濟下行風險升溫,電廠煤庫存增加,同時美國亦持續增加煤出口量,相信未來供應依然充裕。

面對如此情況下,雖然預期煤價短期有望反彈,但後市仍不樂觀,因此雖然息率吸引,但亦未宜作出吸納。

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