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创梦天地(1119.HK) :更强的游戏研发能力为1H19带来靓丽业绩,维持“买入”评级,目标价6.3港元
格隆汇 09-03 09:11

机构:招商证券

评级:买入

目标价:6.3港元

■创梦天地19上半年的收入和经调整净利润均优于我们的预期

■公司作为内容提供商的收入提升将大幅提高盈利能力

■维持买入评级;目标价微调至6.3港元

全业务线实现了强劲的收入增长

创梦天地发布了靓丽的19上半年业绩,收入和经调整净利润均优于我们的预期。收入同比增长33%至14亿元人民币(2H18为27%),主要受全业务线的收入增长提速所带动。游戏收入录得同比33%的增长至13亿元人民币(2H18为27%),主要归功于魔力宝贝、全民冠军足球、梦幻花园和梦幻家园等热门游戏的强劲表现。未来创梦天地将持续自主研发高质量内容,并和战略合作伙伴腾讯和Mail.Ru开展深度游戏订制。我们认为这将大幅延长公司游戏的生命周期,并为游戏出海打下坚实的基础。其他收入录得同比273%的增长,主要源于18年上半年线下店在初期试水阶段收入贡献较为有限所带来的的低基数影响。截至19年上半年,创梦天地拥有16家线下店,并已经实现全面盈利,这主要得益于标准化的业态以及持续优化的中台系统。我们认为当公司找到可持续的盈利模式后,将会开始加速开店。受益于腾讯的支持,这些线下店将为创梦天地带来更多的变现机会。

内容供应商收入的增长将带来双赢的局面

盈利能力的提升是19上半年业绩的另一亮点。毛利率同比提升7.8pp至47.2%,主要归功于公司作为内容供应商的收入增长,以及第三方支付渠道的占比提升所带来的渠道成本下降。我们认为利润率的扩张将可以持续,因为随着创梦天地的游戏研发能力提高,其作为内容供应商的收入也将增长。公司19年上半年的自营游戏收入占总游戏收入的44%(1H18为41%)。基于更强的游戏研发能力,公司也将更好地帮助腾讯在细分游戏领域中获得一席之地。作为回报,这部分收入也将作为增量收入的来源,并因净额法的确认方式将大幅提升公司的盈利能力。费用率同比和环比都有所提高,归功于公司在市场营销以及管理上的效率提升。因此,19年上半年经调整净利率同比增长5.5pp至19.6%,而经调整净利润录得86%的同比增长至2.8亿元人民币。

维持买入评级;目标价调整至6.3港元

我们看好创梦天地,基于其:1)在腾讯生态系统内独特的地位,2)丰富的游戏组合将令公司避免游戏的不确定性,以及3)通过游戏源代码提升游戏生命周期的能力。我们将19/20/21财年的收入调整2.6%/0.7%/-0.8%,经调整净利润调整4.5%/6.0%/7.2%,以体现:1)更多中重度游戏带来的ARPPU提升,2)部分轻度游戏的变现从原先的内购模式转换为线上广告模式,3)线下店收入贡献低于预期,以及4)更多作为内容供应商的收入带来的利润率的提升。我们维持买入评级,目标价调整至6.3港元,主要源于利润率调整以及汇率变动带来的综合影响。我们的目标价对应12倍的2019财年预测市盈率。创梦天地目前的19财年预测市盈率为9倍。

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