天立教育 ( 01773.HK ) ：业绩快速增长，模式值得期待，维持“买入”评级
机构：国信证券
评级：买入
业绩快速增长，扩张致毛利率下降
天立教育2019H1实现收入4.38亿元，同比增速42.01%；毛利1.90亿元，同比增速22.49%；净利润1.46亿元，同比增速36.35%。公司2019H1毛利率43.4%，较去年同期的49.9%下降6.5%；主要系新开7所学校提前配置核心管理和教学团队，导致成本增加所致。净利率33.4%，较去年同期的34.5%下降1.1%。随着公司已开学校数量的增加和新学校逐年招生带来的人数增长，未来几年内扩张对毛利率的影响有望逐步减小。
办学成绩出色，为异地扩张打牢基础
2019年公司旗下泸州、宜宾、广元、西昌四所学校高三毕业生本科上线率93.6%，一本上线率68.6%。其中西昌为首届高三毕业生，本科和一本上线率分别为92%和53%。广元为第二届毕业生，本科和一本上线率分别为95%和65%。公司凭借先进的办学理念、卓越的办学质量、优质的办学条件，持续贡献喜人的升学成绩，有利于天立品牌的建设和输出，为全国布局打下坚实基础。
内生潜力十足，外延扩张动力充沛
公司2019-2020学年在读人数有望接近甚至超过4万人。已有学校+今年新开学校+已签约项目的规划学生容量超过10万人，增长空间在一倍以上。公司当前有息负债率仅为9.6%，在手现金及等价物超过10亿元。公司开校的投入结构中政府补贴占比较高，因此未来2年内扩张所需的资金具有保障。同时，随着品牌影响力的增加，新项目进展顺利。综合来看，天立扩张的动力充沛，仍将处于高速发展阶段。
维持“买入”评级
预计公司2019-2021年收入分别为8.97、11.66和13.99亿元，同比增速40.0%、30.0%和20.0%；净利润分别为2.72、3.46和4.13亿元，同比增速39.9%、27.1%和19.4%。8月30日收盘价3.40港元对应2019-2021年预测PE分别为20.8、16.4和13.7倍。维持“买入”评级，合理估值区间4.40~4.89港元。
风险提示
1.公司新开学校进度和办学效果不及预期；2.K12相关法律政策不及预期；
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