天立教育(01773.HK):收入利润稳步快速增长,切实推动优质资源普及,给予“买入”评级
机构:天风证券
评级:买入
19H1营收同比增长42.0%,净利同比增长36.5%达到1.47亿元。
8月27日,公司发布半年报,19H1实现营收4.38亿元,同比增长42.0%;净利1.47亿元,同比增长36.5%;归母净利1.44亿元,同比增长38.3%。营收增幅主要是由于来自于学生入读人数增加及部分自有K-12学校上调学费所致。
从服务收入来看:学费收入为3.07亿元(占比70.1%,同比+0.1pct),同比增长42.2%;寄宿费收入为0.39亿元(占比8.9%,同比-0.8pct),同比增长30.8%;学校餐厅营运费收入为0.89亿元(占比20.4%,同比+0.3pct),同比增长44.1%;管理及特许经营费收入为0.03亿元(占比0.7%,同比+0.4pct),同比增长205.4%。
毛利为1.90亿元,同比增长22.5%;毛利率为43.4%,同比减少6.9pct,乃由劳工成本增加所致。
销售费用率1.53%,较18H1减少0.38pct;管理费用率为9.75%,同比减少2.14pct;财务费用率为0.80%,同比减少2.74pct。具体来看:销售及分销开支为0.07亿元,同比增长13.7%。行政开支为0.43亿元,同比增长16.4%,主要由于行政员工成本增加。利息开支为0.04亿元,同比减少67.9%,主要由于报告期间与项目有关的大部分未偿还贷款其后予以资本化所致。
净利为1.47亿元,同比增长36.5%;归母净利1.44亿元,同比增长38.3%。净利率为33.4%,同比减少1.4pct。
天立教育成长逻辑清晰明确,且一直未变。一方面依靠卓越出色的办学成绩吸引生源;另一方面通过和地方政府合作加快开校储能,该两点有效性已充分得到验证未来还会继续强化。具体来看:
第一,优质办学成绩有效保证生源供给,招生是民办学校发展的根本源泉与核心动力,对于体制内学校,高考及中招成绩无疑是检验其教学质量的公正衡量。
第二、开校节奏清晰明确,储能充分,拓展团队执行力到位,成长可见性确定性较高。具备优质办学品质后,充分的容量供给是保持持续快速增长的根本保障,天立和地方政府深度合作,优势互补,互惠互利将持续验证模式有效性。
维持盈利预测,给予买入评级。
天立快速开校一方面在于二三四线教育资源相对紧缺,天立凭借自身办学经验有效丰富当地教育供给,借助民办特有灵活优势提高运营效率;另一方面将有效减轻地方财政压力,全国多数地方政府大都对民办教育采取积极欢迎态度。我们始终坚定看好天立模式,认可其对优质教育资源经验的异地输出与复制。目前政策尚未最终落地,但因地制宜引导优质民办教育发展或是长期方向,建议积极关注。我们预计天立FY19-20年净利分别为2.85亿、3.9亿,对应PE分别为20xPE、15xPE。
风险提示:开校招生不及预期,民促法实施条例尚未落地
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