海螺水泥(00914.HK)：盈利能力再创新高，维持“审慎增持”评级，目标价54.48港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价：54.48港元
投资要点
公司披露2019H1业绩：营业收入716.44亿元，同比+56.63%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润152.60亿元，同比+17.91%，基本每股收益为2.88元。Q2实现收入411.43亿元，同比+52.5%，归母净利91.78亿元，同比+12.43%。?量价齐升，成本有所上涨。H1水泥熟料自产自销量同比增6.8%；外销均价提升21.5元/+6.9%；成本提升9.3元/+5.6%；吨毛利提升12.2元/+8.4%；吨净利104.2元/吨，提升7.9元/+10.5%。
——公司所在的华东、西北和西南的川渝市场表现较好，需求有明显增长，特别是华东地区，预计超越所在地区平均的销量增长，份额提升主要依赖于熟料的外购、以及少停产等综合影响。
——公司成本有一定上涨，吨成本上涨9.3元，其中原材料吨成本上涨了7.6元为主要原因，我们预计一方面是因为混合材的涨价，另一方面也跟外购熟料增加有关；人工成本增加也较为显著。
期间费用上涨，主要是人员薪酬的调整所致。销售费用中工资及福利费同比增长40%；管理费用中工资及福利费同比增长50%。其它科目变动不明显。
近期市场逐渐进入旺季，但预计涨价幅度低于去年。本周全国水泥市场普遍迎来一轮上涨，但考虑到去年4季度长三角限产导致价格大起大落，预计今年Q4价格大幅拉涨的概率较低。展望2020，长三角区域竞争格局良好、企业对话通畅，大面积价格战的条件并不具备，但湖北、江西沿江均有新线规划投产，对沿江市场可能会有一定压力，仍需密切跟踪需求情况。
我们的观点：公司具备较高的配置价值，长期回报的高低在于分红率和投资的走向：分红比例仍有大幅提升空间；海外规划和产业链延伸、国内并购仍可贡献一定成长性。预计2019-2021年公司归属净利润341亿元、355亿元、361亿元，最新收盘价对应19年预测PE约6.1倍。维持“审慎增持”评级及54.48港元的目标价。
风险提示：经济恶化、行业协同破裂、原材料价格大幅波动
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