微盟集团 (2013.HK) ：SaaS业务大客户拓展超预期，营销业务非腾讯流量占比预提升至20%
机构：方正证券
公司2019上半年收入同比+98%至6.6亿元，毛利率同比-14pcts至56%，经调整EBITDA净利润同比+79%至6830万元，经调整净利润Non-HKFRS为2950万元。公司两项业务（Saas\精准营销）均取得靓丽增长，并且规模效应逐步增强，SaaS服务预计在2020年实现盈亏平衡。分业务来看：
一、SaaS服务。2019上半年收入2.2亿元，YoY+41%。SaaS付费用户同比+24%至7万，SaaS服务ARPU+13%至3129元。随着客户结构优化，以及公司产品技术的迭代，老客户占比提升且粘性增强，客户流失率同比降低4.4pcts至8.9%。2019年SaaS业务发展的战略重点：（1）大力拓展大中型企业客户，尤其是连锁零售商、餐饮类的高净值客户，ARPU有望继续提升。（2）通过自主开发、外延收购，继续横向拓展业务领域。餐饮类重点开发外卖小程序，酒店类收购的广州向蜜岛继续拓展客户和业务。（3）强化开发者生态，合作第三方开发商450个，累积开发应用750个，用户流量大、交付体验流畅。
二、精准营销服务。虽然国内广告市场挑战严峻，但公司营销业务上半年净收入同比+148%至4.4亿元，毛收入同比+86.1%至18亿元，对应返点率（净收入/毛收入）为24.3%，较去年同期提升6pcts。新增广告主5137人至1.95万，每活跃广告主ARPU同比+35%至9.2万元，复投率从49%增长至57%。2019年精准营销业务的战略重点是提升非腾讯流量占比至20%，包括抖音、快手等。
战略合作和资本市场情况：公司在2019年1月在港股上市，并且在4月、7月连续两次获得腾讯增持，取得腾讯的KA牌照。7月完成11.6亿元新股配售，并确认将在2019年9月9日纳入恒生指数。在2B业务领域投资收购了向蜜岛（酒店SaaS）、杭州达摩（连锁零售SaaS）。公司的技术后台、销售团队在2B服务市场中具备优势，横向整合后可以通过交叉销售更好地提升规模效应。我们预计2019年收入约同比+80%至16亿元，其中SaaS收入增速约40+%，精准营销收入保持翻倍增速，规模效应将带动费用率进一步降低。
风险提示：基于云平台的软件服务行业竞争格局加剧，导致SaaS客户ARPU值下降、流失率增加；人才流失和员工薪酬水平提高导致员工费用增长，前期盈利水平低于预期；营销服务广告主复投率下降；公司销售开支较高；腾讯、头条等流量平台政策变化，为广告代理商提供的返点率下降。
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