1H19业绩点评 | 中国东方教育(0667.HK)：学费和人数持续提升，驱动公司业绩快速增长
机构：光大证券
◆事件：中国东方教育披露1H19业绩：收入18.21亿元（+26.6%），毛利11.07亿元（+45.4%），调整后净利润4.08亿元（+88.1%）。
◆调整后净利润+88.1%，业绩快速增长。1H19（20190101-20190630）中国东方教育净利润3.12亿元。净利润考虑到（1）股份支付费用7500万元；（2）上市费用2000万元。若剔除上述非经常性项目影响，中国东方教育核心净利润约为4.08亿元（+88.1%）。
◆各个学校收入增长明显，预收款约15亿。分学校来看，新东方烹饪收入10.14亿元（+16%），新华电脑收入3.49亿元（+38%），万通汽车收入2.46亿元（+25%），欧米奇收入1.55亿元（+89%），华信智原收入0.39亿元（+70%），美味学院0.19亿元（+150%）。学校数量新增5所，达到168所，其中新东方52所、欧米奇24所、美味学院19所、新华电脑24所、华信智原22所、万通27所。预收款约14.70亿元（+19%）。
◆新培训及新注册人数7.62万人次（+22.9%），平均培训13.30万人次（+11.3%）。其中长期课程3.38万人次（+11.7%）、短期课程4.24万人次（+33.6%）。其中新东方长期课程1.73万人次（+3.7%）、新东方短期课程2.19万人次（+31.5%）、欧米奇6583人次（+43.8%）、美味学院4175人次（+79.5%）、新华电脑长期课程1.18万人次（+34.5%）、新华电脑短期课程1580人次（-2.9%）、华信智原2172人次（+13.7%）、万通长期课程4649人次（-2.4%）、万通短期课程6009人次（+29.1%）。
◆生均学费/服务费方面，公司整体学费2.73万元（+13.8%）。分学校来看，新东方2.97万元（+17.9%）、欧米奇7.34万元（+5.6%）、美味学院4.80万元（+39.3%）、新华电脑1.85万元（+2.3%）、华信智原6.02万元（+63.9%）、万通2.35万元（+9.1%）。
◆公司整体毛利率60.8%（+7.9pcts），盈利能力持续提升。分学校来看，新东方64.3%（+4.1pcts）、欧米奇51.0%（+27.9pcts）、新华电脑67.6%（+8.2pcts）、万通53.7%（14.1pcts）。
◆盈利预测：考虑到公司各项业务的迅速增长、客单价和招生人数的稳步增长，我们维持中国东方集团 19~21年收入为42.32/52.39/64.51亿元人民币，同比增长30%/24/23%；净利润为7.80/10.89/13.65亿元，同比增长53%/40%/25%；核心净利润为9.31/11.72/14.27亿元，同比增长74%/26%/22%。维持“买入”评级。
◆风险提示：竞争激烈影响盈利能力、教育政策变化、业务拓展不及预期。
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