植耀輝: 港股試底機會仍高 瑞聲(02018.HK)今非昔比恐續捱沽
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，中美兩國之間的貿易戰已演化至另一階段，詳情不再累贅；至於港股面對之情況無疑更加複雜，但可以肯定的是，大市有相當大機會「低處未算低」，皆因企業盈利前景審慎，同時本地形勢依然悲觀，短期有三、四百點技術反彈不出奇，但大方向仍是尋底居多，初步仍以25,000點作短期支持，因此仍不建議大家胡亂撈底。
業績期，又跟大家談談個別公司表現。舜宇光學(02382.HK)過去曾是筆者心水愛股之一，不過自去年公布令人失望之中期業績後，某程度上有點被它嚇怕了。當然之後仍有留意行業發展，但毛利率下跌的陰霾仍揮之不去。所以今次中期業績見其光學零件(即鏡頭)毛利率出現反彈(上升2.1個百分點至44.1%)，反映在技術發展上存在一定優勢，筆者亦預期相關範疇將可繼續在下半年帶來不俗表現。相比之下，收入佔比75%之光電產品(攝像頭模頭)表現依然不濟，毛利率由9.4%大跌至5.9%。當然集團將此歸咎於新產品良率及生產效率尚待提升，惟筆者仍會再觀察未來出貨量，始再審視舜宇前景。
相比之下，瑞聲科技(02018.HK)情況確實較嚴峻，業績表現差及未來發展缺乏亮點是導致股價不斷尋底的主因，但不同之處在於投資者仍會視舜宇為一隻具增長潛力之手機設備股，但瑞聲雖然歷史市盈率已跌至不足10倍，但如果將之視為一隻工業股，則估值仍難言吸引。所以兩者股價走勢如此極端有其原因。筆者亦相信，只要舜宇繼續交出亮麗出貨量，股價或有機會續試高位；瑞聲則恐怕要交出令人說服之業績表現，始有機會重拾投資者信心。
另一隻想談談的是中煙香港(06055.HK)。其公布之中期業績純利倒退30.5%至僅得1.3億元。由於招股書已有提到今年業績表現存有暗湧，故筆者對其績差並不感到意外；而假設下半年利潤保持不變，中煙估值依然偏高。不過，該股自上市至今其實一直有一個最大賣點，就是母公司注資概念。當然筆者一直對此看法甚有保留，但預期在未來有望納入成為港股通名單下，相信不乏資金炒作，只是投資者要有心理準備，隨時股價又會大幅震盪矣！
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