粤丰环保(1381.HK)2019年中期业绩略胜预期重申“买入”评级
机构：中泰国际
评级：买入
目标价：5.00港元
2019年上半年股东净利润同比增长26.0%
在售电量和垃圾处理量分别同比16.0%和19.8%上升下，公司2019年股东净利润同比上升26.0%至港币4.0亿(见图表1)，相等于我们全年预测的港币9.0亿之44.7%，略胜我们预期。毛利率由2018年上半年的37.2%下跌至2019年上半年的30.9%因为建筑收入占比于同期内由39.5%上升至52.6%。
公司加强与上实合作
另一方面，公司于昨日公布中期业绩前的一天(8月21日)宣布与上海实业控股(363HK；未评级)旗下的上海实业环境(807HK；未评级)按30:70股权比例成立合营公司，主力开发长三角地区的垃圾焚烧发电业务。该合营公司的总注册资本为港币3,000万。我们认为这将明确了公司与其第二大股东上海实业的业务合作模式，有利公司的长远发展。
上调盈利预测
基于2019年中期业绩，我们分别上调2019-2021年股东净利润预测2.1%、1.4%、1.3%(见图表2)。我们预期股东净利润将由2018年的港币7.5亿上升至2021年的港币11.4亿，复合年增长率达到14.6%。
重申“买入”评级
按贴现现金流(DCF)分析，我们相应地将目标价由4.95港元轻微上调至5.00港元(见图表3和4)，这对应11.5倍2020年市盈率和32.6%上升空间。我们重申“买入”评级。
风险提示
(一)项目开发延误、(二)应收账款风险、(三)并网电价大幅下跌。
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