《瑞銀窩輪》中美貿易戰時晴時雨兩手準備留意恆指購22042、沽22181
中國上週五晚宣布對750億美元的美國商品徵收關稅，而美國總統特朗普隨即宣布將5500億美元中國商品的關稅上調5%，並指中國多年來侵犯版權令美國商界蒙受損失，更呼籲美國企業撤出中國。當晚美股應聲急挫，跌超過600點，而週一港股亦低開800點，一度跌超過900點，8暫時仍受制10天和20天線。重磅股可謂全線受壓，騰訊(0700)股價下試320港元，最多跌近4%，平保(2318)曾跌穿89港元，友邦保險(1299)急跌近5%，10天線得而復失，而匯豐(0005)股價則曾下試55.3港元。
因為中美貿易戰升溫，本月大市已累計跌約8%，同期平保表現較佳，只跌3%左右。不過，似乎投資者對市仍充滿信心，根據瑞銀於星期一的即市資金流紀錄，資金較多流入收回價約25000點的牛證。午後彭博報道指，特朗普表示中國政府已致電他的團隊，重啟貿易談判可期，消息一出恆指跌幅大為收窄，指數低位反彈近400點，收市跌示足500點，部分牛證投資者即日已獲利，仍有不少投資者持牛證過夜。由於市況波動，投資者在揀選牛熊證宜留意收回價較穩健的選擇，或可轉為留意認股證作部署。如投資者看好恆指，可留意恆指認購22042，行使價26600點，19年12月到期，有效槓桿約14.倍。如投資者看淡恆指，可留意恆指認沽22181，行使價25400點，19年12月到期，有效槓桿約9.2倍。
另外根據瑞銀於星期一的即市資金流紀錄，資金流入騰訊認購證，反映投資者或看好騰訊控股短線的走勢。如投資者看好騰訊，可留意騰訊控股認購20198，行使價350.2港元，19年11月到期，有效槓桿約11.倍。相反，如投資者看淡騰訊，可留意騰訊控股認沽23438，行使價314.8港元，19年11月到期，有效槓桿約8.7倍。
更多窩輪牛熊資訊：瑞銀證網站: www.ubs.com/hkwarrants卓素華董事
瑞銀亞洲股票衍生產品銷售部
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