恒安国际(1044.HK)渠道改革拖累业绩静待拐点维持“增持”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：增持
投资要点
公司发布2019年半年报：报告期内实现收入107.77亿（+6.31%）；归母净利18.78亿（-3.54%）。报告期内，公司累计回购股份数214.6万股，支付总金额1.22亿港币。公司宣布派息计划，股息为每股人民币1.00元（去年同期派息每股1.00元）。
纸巾业务稳健增长，卫生巾业务短期承压：分业务看，（1）公司纸巾营收54.61亿（+7.40%），主要得益于电商渠道发力，新产品“竹π”市场反应良好、高毛利湿纸巾产品占比提升；（2）卫生巾营收30.75亿（-4.58%），其传统渠道销售占比达60%，而短期阿米巴渠道改革对传统渠道冲击较大，拖累了卫生巾的销售；（3）纸尿裤营收7.51亿（-7.42%），销售跌幅收窄，其中电商渠道增长超10%；（4）其他产品营收14.90亿（+46.24%），其中声科集团收入1.14亿（+118.9%），皇城集团收入2.08亿（+11.8%），原材料销售收入增长超50%，产品结构多元化。
电商渠道高增，阿米巴渠道改革持续推进：上半年公司电商渠道销售额20亿元（同比增长约55%），对整体销售额贡献上升至19.4%（+6.1pct），带动纸巾销售增长及纸尿裤业务跌幅收窄。公司自2016年底推行阿米巴“平台化小团队”经营策略，由阿米巴小团队直接对接终端零售渠道，激发销售团队积极性及灵活性并降低各项费用。但短期内改革阵痛期仍对公司销售有所拖累，我们预计阿米巴改革顺利完成后，将有助于公司长期发展。
原料下跌，结构优化，三大主业毛利率均有提升：报告期内集团毛利率下降至37.29%（-2.35pct），主要系公司低毛利其他业务收入占比上升，但三大主业盈利能力均有提升：（1）卫生巾业务受益于高端产品Space7占比提升，毛利率上升至70.3%（+1.00pct）；（2）纸巾业务收益与年初以来浆价下跌约30%，毛利率由去年下半年19.2%环比改善至25%，且我们预期下半年纸浆价格继续低位运行，抵消竞争加剧及人民币潜在贬值影响，利好纸巾业务毛利率将持续改善；（3）纸尿裤业务受益于高端产品“Q?MO”及“小轻芯”占比提升，毛利率提升至40.6%(+0.7pct)。
加大费用投放，备经营性现金流承压：报告期内由于公司加大品牌宣传力度，SG&A费用率达18.77%（+1.63pct），其中推广及分销成本14.08亿元(+20.4%)。期末公司账上存货46.86亿元(较期初+4.01亿)，存货周转天数同比上升16.91天至119.47天；应收账款及票据32.07亿元（较期初+3.63亿），应收账款周转天数上升6.93天至50.53天。综合来看，公司期内销售净利率16.46%（-2.08pct），经营性现金流净额8.1亿元(同比减少7.58亿)。
盈利预测与投资评级：我们预计19-21年公司将分别实现收入221.00/243.30/274.00亿元，同比增长7.7%/10.1%/12.6%。归母净利润39.31/43.07/49.18亿元，同比增长3.4%/9.6%/14.2%。当前市值对应19-21年PE分别为14.14X/12.91X/11.31X，维持“增持”评级。
风险提示：上游原材料价格波动，渠道改革不达预期
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