国泰君安国际(1788.HK)业绩强回升唯减值增收入更趋均衡维持“买入”评级
机构：中泰国际
评级：买入
19 1H业绩概要与亮点：
国泰君安国际191H营业收入劲升41%至23.6亿港元，创收入（半年）历史新高，归属股东利润同比升26%至6.4亿元，每股盈利0.08元，中期股息同比升27%至0.04港元，派息比率维持50%。ROE升至12%，业绩强劲回升主因企业融资承销收入同比劲增35%及金融产品、做市投资收入增205%。
中泰评论：
收入结构更均衡和多元化公司业务链条今年上半年持续优化，结构更趋于均衡。贷款及融资占比24%、做市21%、企业融资19%、经纪和投资各占12%、金融产品11%、资产管理1%，贷款及融资利息收入缩降至5.59亿港元（同比-22%），孖展融资业务继续加强风险门槛及小幅收缩，更侧重蓝筹股抵押占比；金融产品、做市及投资板块已占比44%，收入10.5亿港元主要受益于中资美元债市场良好表现，其中做市收入转盈至4.98亿，投资2.83亿，同比劲升62倍。企业融资板块DCM劲升26%表现抢眼，完成106项债券发行，ECM业务向大中型企业IPO承销转型已有成效，收入同比增55%至0.93亿港元，IPO保荐项目5单。得益于财富管理业务的协同，传统经纪业务不再缩减，增7%至2.92亿元。
多样化融资渠道保资金成本仍有竞争优势尽管因上半年HIBRO处较高水平，公司191H融资成本同比增长33.2%至4.37亿，但公司采用更多元融资方式如抵押回购、证券借贷（有抵押银行贷款增加了19.8亿）等方式令融资成本更低，银行授信使用率降至41%，公司仍保持在港中资券商最高评级（标普BBB\穆迪Baa2），令融资成本优势仍能保持。
减值拨备增5.13亿港股近年来中小市值股票风险暴露事件频发，公司继18年计提了2.4亿减值基础上，今年上半年继续增加减值拨备，其中客户贷款及垫款减值净额5亿元，管理层表示主要是因过去两年两间已停牌上市公司孖展业务导致。管理层表示对已有风险的项目已做到60-85%的拨备覆盖，视这些公司下半年及后续重组计划，目前这个拨备已足够。财富管理稳增并带动经纪等业务条线公司高净值客户(PI)质量和托管余额均稳步上涨，客户托管余额同比增40%，并带动经纪业务，公司大力扩展股权衍生产品及更广阔的销售网络。
公司为中资在港券商中业务稳定性高，金融产品、投行业务反弹强劲、抗风险能力较强，股息率吸引，估值较低，我们微调公司2019/2020年净利润（-6.1%/-7.5%）至11.16/12.06亿港元，对应的每股盈利是0.15/0.16港元，综合DCF值和PB法，维持“买入”评级。
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