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惠誉倘中国经济严重放缓亚洲发达市场银行料面临重大冲击
阿思达克 08-23 15:55

评级机构惠誉发表报告指,如果中国经济急剧放缓,依赖贸易的亚洲发达市场的银行将面临最大的信贷压力。这些市场中的银行在其所在地区处於承销标准和风险控制水平最高之列,但经济下行将令其资产质量受到考验,并加剧其已然存在的盈利能力方面的挑战。

惠誉的假设情景模拟了美国对3,000亿美元中国输美商品加徵25%关税,导致中国经济大幅放缓所带来的经济影响。企业在需求走弱时需要减轻资产负债表压力及保持流动性,为此会大幅收缩投资活动,这种投资冲击大幅加剧了上述关税影响。2020年中国GDP增速将跌至低点,为3.4%(基准场景下该指标为5.9%),然後在2021年回升至4.2%。

中国经济严重放缓将从三个方面对亚太地区的银行产生影响:中国内地业务遭受直接损失;区域经济走弱导致更广泛的压力;以及全球投资者情绪转为消极所带来的市场风险。

内地之外,香港银行业受中国经济放缓的影响最为直接——2018年末对内地债权占香港银行业资产规模的30%。由於香港与中国内地的关联程度不断加深,惠誉已将香港银行经营环境评估结果从「a+」/负面下调至「a」/稳定。新加坡的银行受中国经济放缓的直接影响也较大。

受宏观经济连锁反应冲击最严重的还有香港、新加坡、南韩及台湾地区,因这些国家和地区与中国内地的贸易联系紧密。此外,中国经济严重放缓可能导致房地产市场情绪恶化,加剧承受能力最紧张的市场的房价调整,尤其是香港和澳洲。

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