惠譽內地私企債轉股料面對銀行重大阻力
評級機構惠譽發表報告,內地國企料續為「債轉股」計劃的核心參與者,反之私企參與料有限,主因內地銀行對後者風險胃納較小。
據國家發改委今年7月29日企業去槓桿工作指引,其透過鼓勵更多私企爭取與金融機構進行市場化債轉股,以降低私企信貸風險及激活私人市場。報告稱,中國將容許更多社會資本,包括險資,參與債轉股,建立資產重組平台,並透過額外降準鼓勵商業銀行進一步參與。
不過,惠譽估計商業銀行對成為私企投資者的興趣不大,主因股票風險較高,及其相關貸款風險亦較高。近期一些私企會計造假及企管醜聞進一步窒礙銀行參與私企債轉股。舉例,工行(01398.HK)(601398.SH)去年10月同意參與康美藥業(600518.SH)母企康美實業債轉股。不過,康美藥業隨後在今年4月公布,截至2017年底止誇大持有現金等值299億元人民幣,引起市場憂慮會計造假及其他不當行為。
報告稱,料銀行將繼續偏好參與國企債轉股,在選擇私企債轉股對象時會維持高度選擇性,如只選擇一些有強勁業務狀況而僅面對暫時周轉不靈的私企。截至2019年4月止,367宗債轉股個案中,僅24宗涉及私企。大部分參與債轉股公司其本土信貸評級達「AA+」或以上。內地普遍視本土評級「AA+」或以上公司的信貸風險相對較低,即使國際投資者看法可能不一。截至4月止,內地國有五大行累計共進行254宗債轉股,佔比高約70%。
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