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惠譽倘中國經濟嚴重放緩亞洲發達市場銀行料面臨重大衝擊
阿思達克 08-23 15:55

評級機構惠譽發表報告指,如果中國經濟急劇放緩,依賴貿易的亞洲發達市場的銀行將面臨最大的信貸壓力。這些市場中的銀行在其所在地區處於承銷標準和風險控制水平最高之列,但經濟下行將令其資產質量受到考驗,並加劇其已然存在的盈利能力方面的挑戰。

惠譽的假設情景模擬了美國對3,000億美元中國輸美商品加徵25%關稅,導致中國經濟大幅放緩所帶來的經濟影響。企業在需求走弱時需要減輕資產負債表壓力及保持流動性,為此會大幅收縮投資活動,這種投資衝擊大幅加劇了上述關稅影響。2020年中國GDP增速將跌至低點,為3.4%(基準場景下該指標為5.9%),然後在2021年回升至4.2%。

中國經濟嚴重放緩將從三個方面對亞太地區的銀行產生影響:中國內地業務遭受直接損失;區域經濟走弱導致更廣泛的壓力;以及全球投資者情緒轉為消極所帶來的市場風險。

內地之外,香港銀行業受中國經濟放緩的影響最為直接——2018年末對內地債權佔香港銀行業資產規模的30%。由於香港與中國內地的關聯程度不斷加深,惠譽已將香港銀行經營環境評估結果從「a+」/負面下調至「a」/穩定。新加坡的銀行受中國經濟放緩的直接影響也較大。

受宏觀經濟連鎖反應衝擊最嚴重的還有香港、新加坡、南韓及台灣地區,因這些國家和地區與中國內地的貿易聯繫緊密。此外,中國經濟嚴重放緩可能導致房地產市場情緒惡化,加劇承受能力最緊張的市場的房價調整,尤其是香港和澳洲。

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