房地产行业物业管理系列报告掘金万亿物业蓝海,优选成长与品质
机构：长江证券
报告要点
物业企业抢滩上市，行业迎来集中爆发
物管企业迎来上市高峰期。2018 年我国物管行业上市公司数量激增，南都物业 成为首家登陆 A 股的物业服务企业，雅生活服务、碧桂园服务等 5 家物业服务 企业均成功在香港上市。越来越多的企业正奔赴资本市场，物管行业备受关注。
蓝海市场曙光渐明，行业盈利存在支撑
蓝海市场曙光渐明，行业格局尚未落定。当前物管面积较存量市场仍有较大差 距，且增量空间广阔，测算 2020 年市场规模或达 1.2 万亿，行业赛道足够宽敞。 物管行业集中度有所提升，但格局落定言之尚早，当前仍处提规模抢份额阶段。
多环节优化获利能力，行业盈利有保证。物业费受调控而成本刚性提升，但行 业毛利率并未呈现单边下行，主因企业与行业多环节发力优化盈利能力：拓展 高物业费新盘提升服务均价；科技赋能起实效，人均产值有提升；高价值增值 业务占比提升；物业费管控或逐步放权给市场，行业盈利最大压制或有松动。
规模扩张为先，但差异化竞争仍存
规模拓展为第一要务，三种模式各有千秋。当前行业格局未定，扩展管理规模 抢占市场份额成为第一要务。总体来看物业企业规模扩张主要有三种模式：较 强依赖关联房企的公司如碧桂园服务等、依靠自身品质市场化拓展的公司如绿 城服务等以及凭借收并购快速扩张的公司如雅生活服务等，三种模式各有利弊。
差异化竞争不乏亮点，物管业态与增值业务各具特色。规模扩张之外，部分上 市物管企业在差异化竞争中进行积极尝试，重点主要集中在物管业态与增值业 务两方面，如聚焦高价值物管业态的中航善达与互联网经营思维的彩生活。差 异化竞争为相关企业在当前增量市场及远期存量市场攫取市场份额提供助力。
短期关注规模扩张与盈利弹性，品牌为长期核心
短期关注规模扩张与盈利弹性，品牌为长期核心。短期规模扩张抢占份额为重， 规模高增长且可持续企业更值关注。背靠龙头开发商，规模高增速确定企业如 碧桂园服务，以及依靠自身品质市场化拓展能力强的物管公司如绿城服务、永 升生活服务更易享有更高估值。长期来看，若行业增速放缓进入存量市场，具 有品牌竞争力的公司如绿城服务更易在竞争中脱颖而出，在市场集中度提升进 程中扩大市场份额，享受估值溢价；此外进行差异化竞争，聚焦高价值机构业 态的中航善达与创新互联网思维，打造优质社区平台的彩生活亦或有更多机会。
风险提示： 1. 地产竣工交付不及预期，行业规模扩张受限； 2. 物业费市场化定价进程进度缓慢。
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