《大行报告》瑞银下调奥园(03883.HK)目标价至10.7元评级「中性」
瑞银发表研究报告指,出席了奥园(03883.HK)业绩简报会,管理层透露了今年8月份合约销售可能达到70亿元人民币,意味着按年仅录得2%增长,相对7月份增长11%,明显进一步放缓。管理层亦见到下半年三、四线城市物业销售及价格,将面对更大下行压力。
该行认为,奥园疲弱的销售势头,可以预视其他三、四线城市占比较多的开发商最新趋势,包括:碧桂园(02007.HK)、新城发展(01030.HK)及富力(02777.HK)。基於奥园首八月合约销售情况,换言之9月至12月需要录得23%的年增幅,公司才可达到全年1,141亿元人民币的销售目标。
该行将奥园2019年至2021年每股基本盈利预测,分别调整-3%/-3%/+1%,至1.37元人民币、1.98元人民币及2.55元人民币,反映销售及行政开支增加及2020年至2021年合约销售增长减少。同时,将其目标价由11.3元下调至10.7元,维持评级「中性」。
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