大摩恒安(1044.HK)估值吸引评级“增持”目标价65港元
摩根士丹利发表研究报告,预期恒安(01044.HK)上半年销售额增长7%,其核心产品仅增长2%。该行认为其向传统贸易直销模式的过渡,可能会导致短期的停滞,尤其是女性产品业务,占传统贸易销售约七成。另外,上半年毛利率料按年下跌3.6个百分点,主要是受到不利的产品组合转移及纸张价格上升所拖累;盈利料按年下跌13%。
大摩认为,恒安的品牌及产品仍具有吸引力,预期销售增长将会由2019年的6%提升至2020年的8%,并在2021年提速至9%,相信在传统贸易上的小问题将逐渐淡化,而公司在现代贸易及网上的增长将会继续。另外,纸尿片业务在新产品及强劲的网上增长支持下出现了持续改善。毛利率复苏将会是下半年强劲的盈利推动因素。
将目标价下调10%至65港元,以反映更多保守的销售预期及暂时的毛利率收窄。基于估值吸引,维持“增持”投资评级。
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