麦格理下调雅居乐(3383.HK)目标价至21.78港元维持“跑赢大市”评级
麦格理发表报告指,雅居乐集团(03383.HK)将于8月21日公布中期业绩,相信其独特的土地储备长远可令公司受惠,而其环保工作及分拆非地产发展业务发展亦见成功。该行指出公司正推动业务多元化,料非地产开发收入贡献2019财年将扩大至12%,而去年全年占比仅为6.5%,管理层估计五年内非地产开发收入贡献可升至50%,目标是当相关业务成熟时便将其分拆。

该行认为雅居乐环保业务具增长潜力及可观利润,相信受惠其稳健废物处理规划中产能带动,收入增长料强劲,料届2021年可增长达16倍。而雅居乐亦积极透过并购扩张业务。
麦格理认为雅居乐与同业有所不同,聚焦较独特的市场及产品,公司在旅游物业上属先行者,自十年前首度买地,现时旅游物业于土储中的比例已达28%,相信中期将继续扮演重要角色。另外公司土储中有27%位於大湾区,相信亦能受惠。
该行估计上半年雅居乐表现将在正轨上,而来自非地产开发业务的收入占比料将达10%至15%,不过由於利润较高的海南项目不在期内入帐,故毛利率料趋正常化,料在30%或以上的水平。
麦格理认为,雅居乐现股价尚未完全反映非地产开发业务贡献,相当于每股资产净值(NAV)折让达69%。雅居乐现价相当於今明两年预测市盈率分别4.2倍及3.6倍,估值不高。今明两年预测股息率分别达10.8%及12.6%属吸引。
该行将其2019至2021年各年核心盈测分别升3.5%、0.7%及0.1%,目标价降1.2%至21.78港元,相当于每股NAV折让29%,维持“跑赢大市”评级。
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