腾讯控股(0700.HK)下一个增长引擎在哪里？还需要再等等
机构：国金证券
评级：中性
目标价：348港元
事件
腾讯公布2019年二季报：营业收入同比增长21%（我们预期为25%），Non GAAP净利润同比增长19%（我们预期为17%）。其中，手游业务收入同比增长26%，是最重要的增长引擎；端游业务收入同比下滑9%；广告业务收入同比增长16%；金融科技及企业服务收入同比增长37%。毛利率同比下滑3pct,而营业费率同比也下滑3pct。
评论
游戏业务大放异彩，三季度只会更好：我们此前预期，由于二季度新游戏仅有《和平精英》表现较好，该季度手游收入同比只有15-20%；事实远超预期。我们认为，这主要是由于老游戏的长线运营，以及海外收入的贡献。端游流水同比上升，但是由于《英雄联盟》递延周期较长，会计收入同比下滑。进入三季度，腾讯已经发行了《跑跑卡丁车》《龙族幻想》等爆款手游，端游业务还在持续复苏，我们对游戏业务感到乐观。
广告业务的瓶颈不是短期能解决的：二季度社交广告收入同比增长28%，尚属差强人意；但是媒体广告收入同比下滑7%。我们认为，腾讯广告最大的问题是组织结构不清晰、内部协同不畅；仅仅依靠新增广告位不能解决问题。在长期，微信小程序电商可能带来巨大的CPS广告增量，然而这不是一蹴而就的。媒体广告可能在三季度出现季节性的回暖。
金融科技是最大的惊喜、下一个利润引擎：如果剔除存款备付金上缴的影响，二季度金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长57%；我们估计该项业务大部分收入来自微信支付。微信支付已经是国内最大的第三方支付平台（按交易笔数），随着移动支付进一步下沉，它的市场份额还能上升。随着支付补贴的降低、理财和贷款等高利润业务的发展，我们预计金融科技将成为腾讯的下一个利润引擎，但是具体时间表还很难估算。
控制费用有一时之效，但不是长久之计：二季度销售费率同比下滑4pct，对利润有重要支撑作用。然而，这并非长久之计，因为游戏、金融科技、企业服务以及海外业务都需要巨大的市场投入。未来几个季度，腾讯在成本和费用端将持续面临压力，营业利润率很难环比提升。
我们预计腾讯2019-2021E Non-GAAP EPS为9.55/11.47/13.52元。基于DCF得出目标价348港元，维持“中性”评级。
风险因素：监管风险，新业务风险，技术替代风险，战略投资风险。
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