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沈建光通胀达到阶段性高点
格隆汇 08-10 11:35

作者:沈建光

来源:沈建光博士宏观研究

8月9日,国家统计局公布了7月通胀数据。其中,CPI同比上涨2.8%,PPI同比下降0.3%

7月CPI同比上涨2.8%,涨幅较上月略升,翘尾影响约为1.2个百分点,新涨价影响约为1.6个百分点。推动7月CPI的主要是食品中的猪肉和鲜果分项。7月食品价格同比上涨9.1%,创2012年2月以来新高。其中,受非洲猪瘟疫情影响,猪肉供应稍紧,猪肉价格上涨27.0%,涨幅扩大5.9个百分点,影响CPI上涨约0.59个百分点;随着时令瓜果大量上市,鲜果价格上涨39.1%,涨幅比上月回落3.6个百分点,影响CPI上涨约0.63个百分点,由于去年同期价格较低同比仍维持高位。7月非食品价格同比上涨1.3%,创2016年7月以来新低。其中,交通和通信价格同比下降2.1%,居住价格同比降至1.5%。

图表1:7月食品和非食品价格分化加大

资料来源:Wind,京东数字科技

图表2:猪肉和鲜果分项推动7月CPI同比增

资料来源:Wind,京东数字科技

7月PPI由上月持平转为下降0.3%,翘尾因素影响约为0.2%,新涨价因素影响约为-0.5%。其中,生产资料价格下降0.7%,降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点;生活资料价格上涨0.8%,涨幅比上月回落0.1个百分点。主要行业中,除黑色和有色相关行业外,石油天然气相关行业、煤炭相关行业、化学品制造业的同比增速均有回落。7月国内钢铁、汽油价格上升,而原油、煤炭、有色、化工、水泥价格均有下滑,南华工业品价格回落。接下来随着基数走高,预计PPI同比或继续走低。

图表3:生产资料价格带动PPI同比增速下滑

资料来源:Wind,京东数字科技

图表4:5月开始PPI同比翘尾因素逐渐下滑

资料来源:Wind,京东数字科技

展望后市,6月下旬以来水果价格已显著回落,非食品价格走势疲软,因此猪肉仍是未来通胀抬升的主要风险。根据农业部和发改委数据,7月猪肉平均批发价23.6元/公斤,22个省市平均价26.1元/斤(截至7月19日),同比增速分别攀升至36.3%和45.3%。7月中旬农业部相关人员表示,“预计下半年猪肉供需关系进一步趋紧,猪价继续上涨压力较大,但由于禽肉、鸡蛋、牛奶等畜禽产品产量增加,消费结构调整加快,加之进口猪肉及其制品数量也有所增长,肉类市场供给总体有保障”,二季度政治局会议也提及“保障市场供应和物价基本稳定”,表明政策层也在密切关注物价上涨风险。原油是通胀抬升的另一个风险。在国际局势复杂多变的背景下,需要警惕原油价格的大幅波动,尤其是四季度基数偏低的情况下。

根据笔者的预测,7月CPI同比处于全年顶部区域,8-10月将出现明显回落,年底再次回升,12月可能重回顶部区域。整体来看,年内破“3”压力有限,通胀水平可控,超预期风险在于猪价和油价大幅波动,导致猪油共振推升通胀。此外,明年年初通胀压力或有抬升,需要关注。

图表5:猪价持续上行,水果价格明显回落

资料来源:Wind,京东数字科技

图表6:7月开始CPI同比翘尾因素逐渐下滑

资料来源:Wind,京东数字科技

年内通胀可控将给予货币政策一定的操作空间。二季度政治局会议强调“稳健的货币政策要松紧适度,保持流动性合理充裕”,此前央行二季度例会也表示货币政策重在“适时适度实施逆周期调节”,8月以来中美经贸形势再起波澜,国内经济下行压力较大,预计下半年货币政策将整体延续结构性宽松的态势,通胀将不会显著束缚货币政策的操作。一方面,货币当局仍将更多依靠定向工具、同时加大对创新工具的使用,着力疏通政策传导机制,继续针对中小企业融资难融资贵等问题定向发力;另一方面,全球(尤其是美国)降息周期的陆续开启也将给予货币政策更多空间,下半年存在降准、降息的可能性。

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