IGG(00799.HK)蓄力研发致力多品类创新维持“增持-B”评级
机构：安信证券
评级：增持-B
■半年报业绩同比下滑，主要由于新游表现不及预期：上半年总收入同比降9%至3.55亿美元,环比稳定。调整后净利同比降28%，调整后净利率20.5%。派息0.13港币/股；派息+回购金额占上半年净利润的39%，其中派息率稳定在30%。
■成熟游戏运营更看重活跃用户规模。上半年，成熟游戏变现较为稳定，《王国纪元》和《城堡争霸》平均月流水分别在五千二百万美元和八百万美元的水平。在成熟游戏运营上，公司策略更偏重扩大活跃玩家规模，延长平均生命周期，所以上半年的投入重点在中国大陆（来自头部游戏公司的竞争更为激烈）以外的市场。我们预期下半年这两款游戏收入保持环比微跌的趋势，对《王国纪元》来说保持活跃玩家的地域多元化更有利于维持用户的粘性和参与度。
■新游计划清晰，侧重品类创新。公司上半年上线五款新游，进度加快；并且下半年的新游计划更为清晰，预期每季度上线二至三款。新游计划里类型更为多元，包括SLG、休闲类、FPS类等。虽然公司一直深耕SLG品类，但从今年新游中我们看到公司更注重多品类结合及玩法创新，比如《巨龙国度》将SLG和RPG玩法结合，即将开始三个月的推广期。从公司策略看，正在向综合游戏品类的研运商转型；我们认为这将提升公司整体竞争力，但也需要时间积累经验。
■2019年蓄力扩张研发实力，下半年料营销费用上升:我们看到虽然收入增长遇到挑战，但公司并未吝于研发投入，上半年的人员扩张是为了储备多品类研发实力，费用占收比同比上升近5个百分点至12%，目前已基本完成全年招募计划。下半年我们预期为了推广测试新游，销售费用占收比将环比上升。整体来看，全年的利润率面临下行压力，我们估计全年调整后净利率在19.4%，同比下滑约6.5百分点：下半年新游能否带来规模效应仍需关注变现进度。
■投资建议：维持增持-B。我们认为公司在全球游戏研运能力优势领先，深耕SLG品类，巩固研发实力，新游看重多品类结合和玩法创新；在蓄力阶段，整体利润率面临下行压力。目标价8.7港币（不变），基于10倍动态市盈率和2019年调整后每股收益0.87港币.我们预计公司2019/2020年的收入增为0%/11%，调整后净利润为1.46亿/1.67亿美元，增速分别为-25%/15%，调整后净利率为19.4%/20%。维持风险评级B，是考虑到游戏业务本身的不确定性。
■风险提示：1）新游变现不及预期；2）营销、研发投入高于预期。
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