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《大行报告》高盛美列中国为汇率操纵国料内地将避免人币大幅贬值
阿思达克 08-06 15:40

高盛发表的研究报告指,人民币於周一(5日)转弱後,美国财政部宣布把中国列为汇率操纵国,但该行不认为对关税规模及其他美国制裁行动有影响。高盛指人民币昨日跌穿七算,是逾10年以来最低水平,而美国财政部对上一次定性汇率操纵国是25年前。

该行指出举措反映贸易战纠纷进一步升温,但不预期会带来实际的影响,美国已向中国出口产品大量徵税,而财政部仅指部长努钦将与国际货币基金组织(IMF)商讨,以移除中国最近的行动所带来的不公平竞争优势。该行留意到IMF首席经济师最近亦指出,中国的外部定位进一步与2018年的基本面趋向一致,相估部分是因为汇率弹性增加以及过去十年实际升值有关。

该行指出,矛盾的是中国政策制定者近日的行动似乎是想限制人民币贬值的程度,昨日人行刊发的声明亦包括淡化了人民币破七的言论,反映人民币或有潜力再度转强,或者不需要进一步快速贬值。该行认为走势符合预期,预期未来三个月人民币兑美元将贴近现水平或见7.05水平,虽然短期风险仍然偏向呈弱势,但人行今早亦采用了有史以来最大的「逆周期因子」,反映政策制定者亦想避免人民币大幅贬值。 ~

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