羅家聰料美聯儲年底前將再減息一次港銀「跟減」機會微
交通銀行首席經濟及策略師羅家聰出席電台節目時表示,美國聯儲局宣布減息四分一厘,根據利率期貨市場預期,年底前仍會再減息一次,但參考美國最新的經濟表現,認為衰退風險不高,通脹水平亦不低,所以仍未能確定下次減息將是甚麼月份。
他指出,雖然歐洲和日本都傾向跟隨減息,但實際上歐洲和日本並無太大的減息空間,最後息差將以較慢步伐收窄,故相信美匯指數下跌壓力有限。
他又預期,香港最優惠利率「跟減」機會不大,因為亦要視乎銀行是否有意減價搶佔市場,假如對樓市等的前景悲觀,銀行未必想借出這麼多。他指出,留意到近期香港的經濟數據,當中投資有出現縮減,意味商業投資活動等均呈收縮,故銀行亦未必有誘因增加放貸。
至於近期社會事件會否對經濟帶來影響,羅家聰認為,阻街或影響運輸交通等不會有大影響,一些商戶生意或受拖累,但個別中小企所受影響,在整體數據中未必能反映出來,反而大型基建投資或交易等,對經濟影響則會較大。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.