《業績前瞻》券商料長和(00001.HK)中期純利近持平至升7%電訊業務支撐增長(更新)
長和(00001.HK)將於明天(8月1日)公布截至今年6月底止中期業績，由於集團近年重組基建項目並售予同系長實集團(01113.HK)等，預期長和旗下基建業務及能源業務(油價下滑打擊赫斯基表現)表現有所倒退，但零售及港口業務平穩，兼且3集團業務受惠收購WindTre交易，本網綜合5間券商預測，長和今年上半年純利料介乎181.1億至193億元，較2018年同期180.2億元，按年增長0.6%至7.1%；中位數為183.81億元，按年增長2%。
綜合3間券商料長和2019年每股中期息預測介乎0.87元至0.89元，較去年同期0.87元，按年持平至升2.3%。
【基建業務呈走弱 併購領電訊業務】
摩根士丹利預計，長和中期純利184.47億元按年升2.4%(按半年則跌12%)，除息稅前溢利(EBIT)按年跌1.7%至348億元，除息稅折舊攤銷前溢利(EBITDA)按年跌0.4%至551.13億元，料其每股中期股息派87港仙，派息比率18%。
該行指出，長和三大收入來源分別為電訊、基建及零售業務，歐洲電訊業務受惠收購WindTre五成股權，估計3集團(歐洲)業務今年上半年EBIT按年升36%至101.75億元、零售業務EBIT按年增長5%(按半年跌11%)，兩者均受中國及歐洲匯價不利影響。該行亦預期長和旗下基建業務EBITDA按年跌23%至105.56億元，因受向長實集團(01113.HK)出售基建資產影響。該行估計長和上半年港口業務EBIT則料按年升約3%至63.91億元。
【關注資本策略 及屈臣氏中國】
里昂預期長和中期純利按年升7%至193億，受惠於WindTre收購交易，而該行關注長和資本配置策略及屈臣氏中國的同店銷售增長表現。但美銀美林為，短期內未看到長和催化劑，尚需等待，以其現估值來看，倘脫歐能達成協議或有其他價值顯現的行動，該行料長和股價將有理想反應。
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本網綜合5間券商預測，長和今年上半年純利料介乎181.1億至193億元，較2018年同期180.2億元，按年增長0.6%至7.1%；中位數為183.81億元，按年增長2%。
券商│今年上半年純利預測│按年變幅
里昂│193億元│+7.1%
摩根士丹利│184.47億元│+2.4%
高盛│183.81億元│+2%
美銀美林│183.72億元│+2%
瑞銀│181.1億元│+0.6%
按長和2018年上年度純利180.2億元推算
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綜合2間券商預測，長和今年上半年EBIT(稅前息前利潤)預測介乎338億元至355.1億元，較2018年同期353.88億元，按年跌4.5%至升0.3%。
券商│今年上半年EBIT(稅前息前利潤)預測│按年變幅
高盛│355.1億元│+0.3%
摩根士丹利│348億元│-1.7%
瑞銀│338億元│-4.5%
按長和2018年上半年EBIT總額353.88億元計算。
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本網綜合3間券商料長和2019年每股中期息預測介乎0.87元至0.89元，較去年同期0.87元，按年持平至升2.3%。
券商│2019年每股中期息預測│按年變幅
高盛│0.89元│+2.3%
美銀美林│0.88元│+1.1%
摩根士丹利│0.87元│持平
長和2018年每股中期息0.87元
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