里昂降中石化(0386.HK)目标价至7港元维持“买入”评级
里昂发表报告表示,中石化(00386.HK)估值吸引,但问题在于股份是否具好的价值抑或是陷阱。该行指出大部分投资者在石化板块下行时都不急于入市,但考虑到下半年盈利或复苏、产能增长、现金流及股息率良好等,认为风险回报现时倾向上行方面,重申对其“买入”评级,但稍降其目标价,由7.4港元降至7港元,此相当预测2019年至2020年综合市盈率11.5倍。

该行指出,中石化旗下炼油业务周期或慢慢步入尾声,而国际海事组织收紧对硫水平要求,短期或带来机遇,而燃料要求收紧对中石化而言亦有利。另外,中国计划於2019-21年增加每日300万桶的新蒸馏产能,而硫化燃料将继续推动中国炼化产品出口提升,商务部早前公布第二批2,850万吨配额,较首批多33%,相信中石化可受惠出口配额提升,公司亦计划将今年出口提升12%。
该行指出受中美贸易不确定性影响,亚洲石化市场需求增长或有限,而公司上半年净利亦料会按年下跌33%至283亿元人民币,主要是受下游及市场业务弱过预期所拖累。
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