渣打下调香港今年经济增长预测至1.4%未见明显走资
渣打大中华区高级经济师刘健恒在记者会上表示,本港上半年经济数据表现较预期为差,次季数据对比首季没有明显改善,其中零售及出口表现面临收缩,加上本地消费意慾偏弱及中美贸易问题难以在短期内解决,该行将本港今年经济增长预测由2.2%下调至1.4%。
他估计,香港经济需要更长时间复苏,明年经济增长料为2%,2021年增长为2.3%,要重回10年平均增长2.7%至2.8%需要较长时间。
息口方面,刘氏称Hibor早前因半年结及大型招股活动影响而抽升,但近日已见回落,在预期联储局今年减息两次的背景下,料Hibor趋势亦会向下,但因本港以往没有跟足美国加息,最优惠利率下调空间有限。而Hibor与Libor未来的息差,亦料将不会再如年初般达80至100点子。
他又指,现时本港银行体系结余跌至约540亿元,资金只属足够而非充裕,相信季节性因素对Hibor的影响会加大及成为常态。至於近日本港持续出现示威活动及政治不稳定,市场有否出现走资情况,刘健恒表示港汇未见大幅转弱,看不到出现明显走资。
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