交银国际保险业半年报有望成为估值提升催化剂维持行业领先评级
交银国际发表保险行业月报,从上半年寿险保费收入增速来看,除国寿(2628.HK)外,平安(2318.HK)、太保(2601.HK)、太平(0966.HK)上半年寿险保费增速呈回升态势,新华(1336.HK)2季度回升势头减弱。平安寿险业务新单保费降幅延续收窄趋势,预计2季度新业务价值率同比稳定,上半年新业务价值同比增长6%左右。从财险保费收入来看,平安、太保和太平6月保费收入增速环比均提升。
报告预计,上半年国寿的新业务价值在去年同期的低基数上有强劲增长;平安新业务价值增速预计与1季度持平;新华新业务价值同比略增;太保和太平同比有所下降。上半年股票市场表现较好,预计投资收益同比有所增长;保险公司手续费支出税前抵扣比例提升,2018年少缴的所得税有望全部或部分计入上半年盈利;预计上半年保险公司盈利增长将较为强劲。
交银国际维持行业领先评级,维持平安H股、太保H股、国寿H股和中国财险(2328.HK)的买入评级。
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