《大行報告》瑞信調整內險股目標價首選國壽(02628.HK)
瑞信發表研究報告,預料內險行業的上半年新業務價值(VNB)錄中單位數增長,但首年保費(FYP)增長仍面臨挑戰,因招聘及挽留經紀困難及產品組合改變。利潤率則見改善,隨著產品組合轉向長期保障。
報告指,在投資收益帶動下,內險行業的內涵價值(EV)趨勢穩健、有效保單業務價值(VIF)上升或VNB貢獻等。更預料部分險企將發盈喜,主因受到投資收益及稅務回撥所致。在內險股中,首選中國人壽(02628.HK),其VNB增長領先同業、盈利強勁及主席變動後,公司更以市場為主導的經營策略。
該行又指,雖然短線氣氛轉弱,但中國平安(02318.HK)仍然為長期核心持有股份,因其內含價值回報率(RoEV)領先同業,稅後經營溢利穩健,以及持續專注質素及以科技為動力的盈利能力。
瑞信調整內險股目標價,國壽由25元升至26元,維持評級「跑贏大市」;中國平安由112元升至113元,同樣維持評級「跑贏大市」;新華保險(01336.HK)及中國太平(00966.HK)均維持評級「跑贏大市」,前者目標價由51元降至48.5元,後者由30元降至28元。
財險(02328.HK)目標價則由9.5元升至10.2元,維持評級「中性」;中國太保(02601.HK)目標價維持38元,評級「跑贏大市」不變。
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