惠譽料內地近期收緊流動性對小型內房帶來更大挑戰
評級機構惠譽發表報告,指內地政府近期透過收緊發展商多種財政渠道,突顯其維持內地房市穩定的政策持續,即使這導致小型發展商面臨更大的流動性挑戰。惠譽稱,政策亦旨在平衡發展商在岸及離岸債務暴露,及控制過度槓桿帶來的潛在系統風險。在2019年強勁的土儲添購活動及更理想的融資環境後,內地政府收緊發展商信貸。
惠譽表示,國家發改委上周五(12日)刊發通知,要求發展商發行新離岸債所得資金,只可以用於下一年滿期中期或長期離岸債的再融資。發展商亦必須在國家發改委登記及發債備忘,清晰表明發債所得用途。
該行相信,已建立離岸債渠道的大型發展商,料不會即時受到新政影響,因其離岸債發行主要用於離岸債再融資。那些採用較慢增長策略的發展商,亦料影響不大,因為其新資本需求有限。不過,長期而言,它們在理想市場環境獲得好處的彈性或較小,難以為未來一年以外高成本離岸債進行再融資。而高信貸評級及大型發展商將改善債務滿期結構,作為再融資計劃的一部分。
對於較小型發展商而言,是次通知料對已在國家發改委登記的潛在新發行人,帶來推動力加快在離岸發債,即使它們首次發離岸債利息成本或較高。而次級發展商本已「水緊」,將最受到新一輪流動性緊縮的影響。惠譽料該等發展商將日益依賴出售資產以提振流動性,或退出行業,致內房板塊進一步整合。
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