郭家耀:觀望外圍港股拉鋸內地汽車業料仍未脫困
正榮金融業務部副總裁郭家耀稱,美股周三(10日)走勢向好,聯儲局主席鮑威爾表示環球經濟前景不明朗,聯儲局上月會議紀錄顯示,經濟下行風險顯著增加,加強市場對減息預期,三大指數均錄得升幅收市,納指更創出收市新高。美元表現回落,美國十年期債息維持於2.06厘水平,金價及油價表現向好。港股預託證券大致向上,預料大市早段跟隨外圍高開。內地股市持續向下,市場繼續觀望中美貿易談判進展及六月份經濟數據表現,滬綜指收市下跌0.4%,滬深兩市成交額萎縮至3,316億元人民幣。
港股繼續窄幅波動,成交亦顯著減少,市場觀望聯儲局月底議息會議結果,以及中美貿易談判消息,預料短期指數維持於28,000至28,600點水平上落。
另外,據中國乘用車市場訊息聯席會消息,內地6月廣義乘用車零售銷量達180萬輛,按年增長4.9%,為13個月來首次按年增長。不過,業界認為6月各大車廠降價清庫存帶動成長,下半年車市不能太過樂觀。對於6月車市回暖,與很多地區率先採用「國六」排放標準有很大關係。如果國五車在7月1日以前不能掛牌,那麼汽車就沒有辦法銷售,很多經銷商及廠家為降低國五的庫存,在很多地區都大幅降價促銷。
降價化解庫存雖然提振銷量,但對於車廠盈利的正面效果有限。未有更多補貼政策出台前,汽車行業仍面臨一段困難時期。
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