郭思治:大市交投进一步萎缩宜先睇紧100天线之支持
帝(峰)证券及资产管理有限公司行政总裁郭思治称,7月只过了四个交易日,从走势上看,大市不但稍见反覆,且形态仍未见明朗,在日升日跌之势头中,恒指至今仍只是反覆於300点之波幅之内,而直到目前一刻止计,恒指暂是由4日之高位29,007点跌至5日之低位28,714点,即月内之波幅暂只得293点,由於此波幅定不能满足月内之所需,加上一个月之高低位是不会同时出现於两个交易日之内,故在本月剩下之交易日,定必有更高或更低之指数出现。
如大市欲出现更高之指数,首先要留意的是成交金额,因目前恒指已升至29,000点左近,任何再上冲的目标定必为5月6日所遗留下之中型下降裂口(介乎29,678点至29,480点,阔198点),如能升越此下降裂口,目标将直指今年4月15日之高位30,280点,此亦为今年暂时之高位,大市如欲做到此点,动力方面之需求实不会少,但照月来之成交金额看,大市实在欠缺一股动力,另外,100天线(28,621点)之支持亦颇重要,因恒指一旦跌穿100天线,除形态上渐呈先高後低之外,其时大市亦可能会进一步受压,但如在月中之前出现此情况,技术上又不算太差,因先低自有利後高也。
教育股近期仍在整固中,惟表现已趋稳定,大湾区最大的民办商科高等教育集团中汇集团(00382.HK)正在招股,由於估值吸引,技资者不妨适量认购作中线部署,集团现金流相当稳定,课程专业,收生率高,有极高评价。
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