《大行報告》中金降金蝶國際(00268.HK)目標價至7元評級「中性」
中金發表報告表示,預期金蝶國際(00268.HK)上半年收入將升18.6%至15億元人民幣(下同),而純利則料跌31.1%至1.17億元,而公司刊發盈警預計上半年收入將按年增15-20%,惟受雲業務投資拖累盈利將跌30-40%。
在傳統業務方面,中金估計金蝶國際上半年收入將為14.7億至15.3億元,而雲收入則為5.33億至5.68億元,而去年同期則為3.55億元,反映傳統ERP業務收入按年持平,早前該行亦已警告受經濟增長放慢影響,料ERP業務增長有機會減弱。此外,公司正將部分傳統ERP客戶轉至雲產品,該行估計相關措施可帶動雲業務今年增長50-60%。
但中金認為,雲業務增長強勁會為利潤帶來壓力,估算金蝶國際雲服務收入上半年將按年增長59%至5.63億元,惟相關業務仍處虧損狀態,管理層亦曾指出相關業務2020年前不能扭虧,故認為整體而言上半年盈利將現較大跌幅,估計將按年跌31%至1.17億元,而淨利潤率則收窄5.6個百分點至7.7%,利潤壓力在今年亦將持續。
該行將公司2019及2020年收入預測分別下調3.5%及5.9%至34億元及40億元,盈利預測則分別削30%及1.6%至3.1億元及5.15億元,主要反映雲業務投資的利潤壓力,重申「中性」評級,目標價削22%至7元,此按綜合方式作估值。(el/w) ~
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