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《大行報告》中金看好金價上漲潛力金屬股薦招金及中鋁
阿思達克 06-21 14:39

中金發表研究報告,預計基准情形下美聯儲下半年降息1次25個基點以對衝需求壓力,並帶動全球貨幣政策開啟寬鬆周期,因寬鬆周期中歐央行、日本央行寬鬆空間不及美國,美元繼續上行空間有限,加上下半年全球經濟增長下行風險增大,而全球貿易摩擦、意大利財政、英國退歐、中東地緣政治等不確定性因素升溫,黃金配置價值將凸顯。此外,2019年全球最大金礦Grasberg減產可能帶動全球礦產金小幅下降,看好金價上漲潛力。

在電解鋁方面,3月中旬以來,國內鋁現貨庫存累計下降36%至112萬噸。鋁需求端受宏觀影響相對有限,仍將維持45%左右的增長,供給由於行業盈利普遍偏低,新增產能投放力度將持續低於預期。受安全、環保因素和鋁土礦區域性緊缺影響,國內氧化鋁價格近期顯著反彈,下半年煤價下行空間不大,鋁價具備成本支撐。未來走勢需關注需求和庫存變化。

個股方面,該行建議在H股中,可以關注中國鋁業(02600.HK)、招金礦業(01818.HK)等,前者給予「中性」評級,目標價3.1元;後者給予「推薦」評級,目標價8.7元。

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