《大行報告》中金料中資股下半年估值下行有限籲增持軟件、電訊、汽車及醫療股
中金發表《海外中資股2019年下半年投資展望報告》表示，市場估值再度回到歷史區間中低位水平，認為H股市場在目前水平上下行空間可能不大。但市場也需要等待更多催化劑出現以開啟明顯的上漲行情。基準情形下(美國對中國產品關稅政策維持現狀)，予國企指數目標點位於11,000點左右，予MSCI中國指數在81點左右，分別對應全年漲幅約8.7%和14%。
該行指在基準情形下，預計海外中資股今年盈利按年增長4.4%(其中金融與非金融行業同比增速分別為4.5%和4.3%)，明顯低於2018年11%的增速。該行指，在近期中美貿易摩擦再度升溫以及中小銀行去槓桿壓力下，將2019和2020年中國GDP增長預測分別從6.4%和6.3%，下調至6.2%和6%。
中金認為，內地潛在政策應對措施可能包括更為積極的財政支出、貨幣政策寬鬆、出台促內需政策，以及針對其它行業的支持性政策。時間點上，G20峰會與年中經濟工作會議傳遞出的政策信號、以及第二季度宏觀經濟表現值得密切關注。
【料下行有限 薦投資主題】
該行稱，中資股目前估值水平有望提供一定下行防護，當前H股市場估值與2018年底時的低點相比僅高出約10%，與全球其它市場相比也存在明顯折讓，而且股息率與債券收益率的價差也在不斷擴大。除此之外，全球和中國債券收益率下行也有望為市場估值提供一定支撐。
中金指出，投資主題方面，建議關注港股通針對同股不同權公司、和ETF產品可能的擴容、香港推出MSCI中國指數期貨、以及美國上市中概股赴港上市。展望2019年下半年，中金對各個板塊的配置建議為：超配軟件、傳媒、電訊與服務、汽車、家電與服裝、食品飲料以及醫療保健板塊(與中國內需相關性更高，而且有望獲得政策支撐)，但低配能源、原材料與交通運輸板塊，相對標配資本品、房地產、金融、科技硬件和公用事業板塊。
此外，該行同時列出策略H股首推股票組合，包括安踏體育(02020.HK)、永達汽車(03669.HK)、長城汽車(02333.HK)、中升控股(00881.HK)、蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)、中生製藥(01177.HK)、石藥集團(01093.HK)、騰訊(00700.HK)、金蝶國際(00268.HK)、中國交通建設(01800.HK)及中移動(00941.HK)。
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