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银公半年结临近致拆息向上料6月底前或维持高水平
阿思达克 06-14 18:01

银行公会主席禤惠仪表示,今年初市场普遍预期中美贸易谈判有望取得进展,当时美国经济数据普遍较理想,但随着中美贸易战纠纷升级,美国部分数据有转差迹象,通胀水平亦低於联储局目标,市场开始改变对美国息口走势的预期,现时甚至估计有机会减息。她指出在联系汇率制度下港息走势应跟随美息,但实际情况仍要视乎港息及美息的差距。

她表示,近期本港一个月拆息曾升穿逾十年高位,主要是由於半年结来临,银行在这段期间作出资金部署,故不排除到月底前拆息会维持相对高的水平。她指出现时一个月港息已高於美息,导致港元沽盘平仓、套息交易大幅减少,港汇亦见转强,相信港汇在月底前会在现水平徘徊。

至於拆息上升,是否与阿里巴巴将来港上市或社会争议事件等有关,她指出留意到最近社会多了讨论政治的情况,整体认为金融体系运作正常,至於不明朗因素除本地之外,亦涉及外围,包括是中美贸易战、英国脱欧等,故预期下半年观望气氛及不明朗因素会较浓厚,所以会做好准备留意风险。

银行公会重申,虽然香港经济基调稳健,但作为外向形经济体,外围不稳定因素仍会为本港带来挑战,业界需提高风险意识,并提醒个人及企业客户投资前需考虑风险承担能力。

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