光大新鴻基料美聯儲今年減息一次人幣下半年或「破7」另薦蒙牛等7股
光大新鴻基外匯策略師任曉平在記者會上表示,美國經濟增長仍處高水平,加上失業率低企及美股持續上升,預期美國聯儲局今年難以如市場所料般減息兩至三次,估計或僅最多於年底減息一次。
他又指,環球資金因避險而主要流入美國國債,帶動美元上升,預期美匯指數或有機會高見100,只要避險情緒高漲,美元回落的可能性相對弱。人民幣方面,任曉平估計,美元兌人民幣在今年或於6.68至7.15的區間上落,下半年大機會升破「7算」,而內地資本管制已大致到位,相信即使升破「7算」,資金外流仍然可控。
另該行證券策略師伍禮賢稱,中美兩國難以在今年底徹底解決貿易問題,料或僅會達成部分階段性協議。而任何有關中美貿易戰的消息出現,都可能為港股帶來較大波動,預測下半年恆指波動區間介乎25,000點至30,000點。
他提到,該行下半年三大投資主題分別為消費需求研穩、基建助力經濟及黃金長線看俏。推薦7隻相關板塊股份,包括蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)、海底撈(06862.HK)、日清食品(01475.HK)、中鐵(00390.HK)、中交建(01800.HK)、山東黃金(01787.HK)及招金礦業(01818.HK)。
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