光大新鸿基料恒指下半年25,000至30,000点区间波动
光大新鸿基发表下半年市场展望,根据不同估值模型综合分析,同时考虑到环球市场货币政策发展,资金走势去向,以及中港金融市场波动因素,该行预测下半年恒指波动区间介乎25,000点至30,000点;国企指数波动区间在9,700至12,000点;上证综合指数波动区间预测则为2,700至3,200点。
风险因素方面,光大新鸿基预期,今年下半年美国将维持货币汇率稳定,中国则相对偏向宽松。而中美贸易摩擦阴霾仍持续困扰环球经济增长。因此下半年重点投资类别,应为受外围经济波动影响较小,及行业具防守性的相关板块。下半年三大投资主题分别为消费需求研稳;基建助力经济及黄金长线看俏。
外汇方面,该行认为,中美贸易战将有机会拖累中国经济进一步减速,特别是中美博奕并不有利於人民币上升。预期美元兑人民币在今年升破「7算」的机会存在,美元兑人民币今年有机会於6.68至7.15的区间上落。另外,英国脱欧问题持续,硬脱欧或将带动英股下跌。
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