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植耀辉:短期或推商用牌照浅谈5G股表现
阿思达克 06-05 11:37

耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,近日内地有消息指将於短期发布5G商用牌照,令5G相关股份於周一(3日)急升。内地早已将今年定为5G商用元年,因此笔者对相关消息并不感到意外,5G亦肯定会继续成为未来其中一个热炒主题。

但投资者亦不要开心得太早。第一,即使5G进入商用期,但由於属发展初段,除速度显着提升外,应用范畴仍相当有限;另外,虽然已有不少手机品牌推出新5G手机,但定价不算便宜之余,由於基站数目有限,因此只可能提供有限度之5G服务。像南韩虽然早已推出5G服务,但5G覆盖范围仍仅限於首都首尔人口稠密地区,导致出现5G网路覆盖范围和速度不足等问题。

最後,内地一直奉行「提速降价」,所以5G月费肯定不会高於4G,这或会增加营运商负担,从而影响盈利能力。因此5G对三大营运商其实相对较负面,就连铁塔(00788.HK)未来在基站租赁费调整上亦存有变数。至於提供5G基建设备之华为及中兴(00763.HK)则较受惠。

这里亦可能涉及另一个潜在商机。由於5G速度「超快」(较4G快数十倍),可以预期届时大部分月费也会趋向「无限Plan」,营运商亦需思量如何「开源」。其中一个方法,可能就是未来透过5G所切入的不同应用,例如移动车载医疗、VR游戏或演唱会等,按次从中收取使用费。由於5G发展有望达致「万物互联」,相关收入可能更值得憧憬,只是一切仍言之尚早,未来须继续关注5G发展。

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