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植耀輝:短期或推商用牌照淺談5G股表現
阿思達克 06-05 11:37

耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,近日內地有消息指將於短期發布5G商用牌照,令5G相關股份於周一(3日)急升。內地早已將今年定為5G商用元年,因此筆者對相關消息並不感到意外,5G亦肯定會繼續成為未來其中一個熱炒主題。

但投資者亦不要開心得太早。第一,即使5G進入商用期,但由於屬發展初段,除速度顯著提升外,應用範疇仍相當有限;另外,雖然已有不少手機品牌推出新5G手機,但定價不算便宜之餘,由於基站數目有限,因此只可能提供有限度之5G服務。像南韓雖然早已推出5G服務,但5G覆蓋範圍仍僅限於首都首爾人口稠密地區,導致出現5G網路覆蓋範圍和速度不足等問題。

最後,內地一直奉行「提速降價」,所以5G月費肯定不會高於4G,這或會增加營運商負擔,從而影響盈利能力。因此5G對三大營運商其實相對較負面,就連鐵塔(00788.HK)未來在基站租賃費調整上亦存有變數。至於提供5G基建設備之華為及中興(00763.HK)則較受惠。

這裡亦可能涉及另一個潛在商機。由於5G速度「超快」(較4G快數十倍),可以預期屆時大部分月費也會趨向「無限Plan」,營運商亦需思量如何「開源」。其中一個方法,可能就是未來透過5G所切入的不同應用,例如移動車載醫療、VR遊戲或演唱會等,按次從中收取使用費。由於5G發展有望達致「萬物互聯」,相關收入可能更值得憧憬,只是一切仍言之尚早,未來須繼續關注5G發展。

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