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《大行报告》中金下调内银估值预测指中小内银去杠杆带来短期波动
阿思达克 06-05 10:43

中金发表报告表示,人行和中国银保监会於5月24日宣布,鉴於包商银行出现严重信用风险,为保护存款人和其他客户合法权益,决定自5月24日起对包商银行实行接管,接管期限一年。这是自2003年中银监成立以来首次对商业银行实施接管,市场对此事高度关注。该行认为,这标志着金融供给侧改革进入深水区,在打破银行刚兑预期、提示银行交易对手风险方面迈出重要步伐。

长远而言,这将促进银行业优胜劣汰,风险定价更为合理,也有利於优质银行估值提升。但短期内,中小银行去杠杆进程的加速会带来负债增长乏力甚至收缩的风险,该行对部分中小银行盈利下修,并下调银行业整体估值及目标价。

对於股票投资者而言,中金认为上述波动性会对市场信心和投资情绪带来负面影响。短期内,建议投资者减少在中小银行,尤其是同业负债占比较高或估值水平较高的中小银行的头寸。

中金下调A股和H股中小银行2019及2020年利润预测平均1-2%,并将覆盖银行目标价下调9%(A股)和 6%(H股)。同时下调了5家内银的评级至「中性」,对中信银行(00998.HK)及民生银行(01988.HK)H股投资评级,均由「推荐」降至「中性」。

该行建议目前在银行板块主要配置於农业银行A/H,建行H股(00939.HK)。该行长期看好招行(03968.HK)、宁波银行(002142.SZ)、平安银行(000001.SZ),但考虑到波动性上行且年初至今其股价已有较大涨幅,建议投资者兑现部分收益。(wl/u)

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