《大行》中金降美團(03690.HK)目標價至155元 料次季經調整純利跌44%
中金發表研究報告指,美團-W(03690.HK)受外賣競爭投入影響,預計次季度核心本地商業營業利潤按年下滑33%至102億元人民幣,對應營運利潤率(OPM)15.2%。因4月後受京東外賣「百億補貼」,5月淘寶閃購加入補貼戰後競爭加劇,美團通過發放消費者端的大額券等策略應對競爭下,外賣市場訂單量整體擴容,預計今年第二季訂單量按年增速加快至14%,但外賣平均訂單價值(AOV)可能受補貼影響下滑幅度擴大至7%。
展望未來,中金認為外賣和閃購競爭強度提升及競爭週期拉長下,預計美團三季度外賣和閃購訂單量,按年增速相較次季度均有望進一步提升,但同時利潤端或將繼續承壓,其中外賣單均盈利或可能轉負。中金預計美團全年核心本地商業營業利潤按年下滑33%至353億元人民幣,對應營運利潤率為12.6%。
此外,美團此前宣布進一步收縮美團優選業務,受此影響中金略調低2025年次季新業務營業虧損,並將全年新業務虧損從104億元人民幣調低至67億元人民幣;但考慮到優選大部分區域的業務關停且海外拓展仍處於初期階段、收入貢獻有限,中金也將新業務全年收入增速下調至10%。
考慮競爭加劇,中金下調美團今明兩年經調整淨利潤預測分別30%及19%,至各286億元及438億元人民幣;維持「跑贏行業」評級,考慮今年競爭投入不確定性,切換估值至2026年,下調目標價12.4%至155港元,對應2026年20倍經調整市盈率與23.5%上行空間。
中金預計美團2025第二季收入按年增長13%至929億元人民幣,經調整淨利潤按年下滑44%至77億元人民幣,對應經調整淨利潤率為8.3%。
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