瑞銀料中國有望成爲全球最大碳交易市場 碳價或升10倍
全國碳交易市場於今日正式啓動。瑞銀全球金融市場部中國主管房東明表示,中國2060年碳中和目標將爲中國經濟結構、能源結構和發展技術帶來一場重大變革,對中國乃至全球的可持續發展至關重要。碳排放權集中統一交易是實現碳中和的一項重要市場工具,全國碳交易市場的設立是邁向這一目標的標誌性裏程碑。
房東明指,隨着在十四五期間更多高排放行業陸續納入全國碳市場,相關交易額有望超千億, 中國有望成爲全球最大碳交易市場,期待未來該機制逐步走向國際化,加強與全球各市場間的合作,助力全球碳排放的平衡並促進整體經濟發展。
瑞銀中國公用事業分析師廖啓華亦在早前發表的報告中,指出碳價有可能從目前價位上漲10倍。自2014 年在7座城市啓動試點以來,中國平均碳價一直處於每噸20至40元人民幣的窄幅區間, 截止本月,累計碳交易量達到3.5億噸,而中國的碳排放總量爲100億噸。該行認爲碳價可能有較大的長期增長空間,原因是隨着更多行業參與碳交易機制,對碳積分的 需求將逐步增加,而在中國力爭實現碳排放目標的情況下,碳積分的供給將減少; 最近歐洲的碳價再創紀錄高位,從一年前的每噸10歐元漲至50歐元。
報告亦提及,目前約2,000家電企將參與全國交易機制。300MW以上發電機組按每千瓦時電所允許產生的碳排放量,以噸計的排放標準設定在877克/千瓦時。瑞銀逐公司進行了分析,將排放標準與它們的2020年實際排放量進行了對比,由此預計華潤電力(00836.HK)將是獲益者, 其盈利有4%的增長空間。未來,包括鋼鐵、電解鋁、造紙、水泥、航空、石油與冶煉等更多行業將被納入全國碳交易機制。這些行業被納入的具體時點不確定,目前正在更新對這些行業所受影響的估算值。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of this article is for reference only. It does not constitute an offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, financial products or instruments.The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.