植耀辉: Tesla真长升长有?百度(09888.HK)前景看长线
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,被不少本地投资者称为「契妈」之Cathie Wood,其创办之ARK Invest又继续唱好Tesla(TSLA.US),指在最乐观情况下,Tesla股价於2025可望达到4,000美元。笔者对此并不感到惊讶,皆因「契妈」看好Tesla并不是什麽新闻,但最悲观又看多少呢?答案是1,500美元。由於笔者也是看网上媒体报道,故并不清楚最乐观/悲观之假设,不过似乎「契妈」亦深明「烂船都有三分钉」的道理,所以在最差情况下,Tesla仍能较现价有高达1.3倍升幅!只是正如笔者上周提到,Tesla优势似乎不断减弱,不少具实力之品牌亦已打算分一杯羹,何况科技发展日新月异,2025年到底会发展到什麽阶段,无人能说得准,所以对相关目标价亦不宜看得太过认真。
何况如果真的看好汽车/科技行业,市场上亦有众多相关概念股份,昨日於本港作第二上市之百度(09888.HK)亦可视为其中之一。近年大家会将热炒之新经济股份简称为「ATMXJ」,但约在十年前,中概股早已有「BAT」之说,当中的A及T分别是阿里巴巴(09988.HK)及腾讯(00700.HK),而B就是百度。当时三者鼎足而立,但时移势易,截至昨日为止,腾讯市值高达6万亿元,阿里巴巴亦接近5万亿元,至於百度市值则只有大概7,134亿元。
为何有这些差异?这便要从三者主业说起。简单而言,三者业务本身均具独特性,腾讯集中游戏/即时通讯(Social)范畴,阿里则主打商业/零售(Business/Retail),至於百度则是内地最大搜索引擎平台,并以此取得广告营销收入。当然,腾讯及阿里业务其後逐步变得多元化,发展至今已成为各自领域上之绝对领导者。
至於百度在搜寻引擎之市占率亦一直取得绝对地位,去年百度搜寻在内地搜索引擎用户份额占比达到70.3%;百度百科亦是全球最大中文百科全书,不过广告收益增速出现放缓,业务亦未见有太大突破,而且亦越来越多其他互联网/移动宣传渠道。所以百度亦早在2010年开始,投入资金研发人功智能(AI)、大数据(Big Date)及云计算(Cloud Computing)商机。
但为何说百度或可受惠汽车/科技气氛?无疑百度近年业绩并没有太多亮点,不过在智能驾驶发展上却有较明显优势。事实上,百度於中国AI之专利申请第一,亦由於累积相当经验,其AI产品亦广为人知,当中便包括智能语音系统DuerOS(类似Amazon之Alexa)及Apollo智能驾驶系统,後者之发展更成为了百度未来其中一个关键。截至去年底百度已获得199张自动驾驶测试牌照,并获得了最高级T4(自动驾驶具备在复杂城市道路自动驾驶之能力)牌照。现时百度亦已与多间汽车生产商如吉利(00175.HK)等合作,且看未来相关发展能否令百度再次成为内地科技三巨头之一。
另外,原来百度亦属於「契妈」股之一「契妈」旗下之ARKK、ARKW及ARKQ均有持有百度美股,占其组合分别为3.39%、1.47%及5.36%(截至3月22日止)。当然笔者本身亦对百度前景有一定憧憬,只是科技股近日调整似未完,所以笔者亦不急於现水平入货,还是待大市去向明朗化後再分段吸纳作部署也不迟。
(笔者为证监会持牌人,持有腾讯及Amazon股份)
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港股仍未摆脱反覆寻底之格局
耀才研究部称,隔晚(23日)美股三大指数下跌,国际油价急挫加剧投资者获利回吐,市场忧虑全球经济复苏仍受疫情影响,市场关注美国财长耶伦和联储局主席鲍威尔一连两日到国会出席听证会的言论。港股ADR普遍向下,恒指今早(24日)有可能进一步下试低位,A股於短期後市表现仍是关键。
从技术上看,恒指至今仍处待变格局,一日恒指仍徘徊於月内高低位,即3月9日低位28,326点至3月3日高位29,912点之间,近日多条移动平均线开始重叠,後市仍然需要等待RSI进一步回升,大市能否出现显着反弹扭转弱势将成关键。
(笔者为证监会持牌人)~
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